Sell now or hold? What the Iran war means for your copper and aluminium pile

If you've been stacking copper offcuts in the corner of the van for the last few months hoping prices would move — they have. Since the US and Israel struck Iran at the end of February and the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, UK yard prices for non-ferrous scrap have pushed higher. The question every plumber, sparky, and roofer is now asking is simple: is this the week to cash in, or does it run further?

Short answer: if you've got clean copper sitting around, this is a good week to move a chunk of it. If you've got aluminium, hold a bit longer. Long answer below.

What actually changed

On 28 February, the US and Israel struck Iran. Iran responded by effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway in the Gulf that carries about 20% of the world's oil and a big chunk of the Middle East's aluminium, billet, and fertiliser exports. Oil prices went vertical. Brent crude hit $126 a barrel, the highest level in four years.

That sounds like a news story about petrol prices, and it is. But it's also a scrap metal story, because:

• Mills that turn scrap into new metal run on electricity and gas. When energy goes up, their costs go up, and they bid harder for the scrap feedstock they can actually get hold of.
• Middle East aluminium smelters (in Qatar, Bahrain, the UAE) supply a huge chunk of Europe's aluminium. Several of them have shut down or stopped exporting because they can't get raw materials in or product out. Aluminium prices jumped to a four-year high.
• Turkey — the biggest scrap buyer in our half of the world — suddenly couldn't get its normal billet imports, so it started paying up for European scrap to keep its own mills running.

All of that fed through to UK yard prices over March and into April. Clean copper grades are up meaningfully on where they sat in January. Aluminium is up harder.

Then on 7 April, Trump announced a two-week ceasefire. Oil dropped 16% in a single day. Some of the scrap gains have wobbled. That's the moment you're pricing into now.

Why the ceasefire doesn't change the picture yet

Here's the bit most headlines are missing. A ceasefire is a political announcement. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is a physical reality, and the physical reality hasn't changed yet. Tanker traffic is still a trickle. Iran is vetting which ships can pass and reportedly wants crypto payments to let them through. Israeli strikes on Lebanon have already put the ceasefire under strain within 48 hours.

Until ships are actually moving through Hormuz at normal volume and Gulf aluminium smelters restart, the scrap premium stays put. And if the ceasefire breaks — which is a real possibility — prices will spike again before the end of April.

Copper: a good week to sell the clean stuff

If you've got a pile of bright copper wire, heavy clean pipe, or tubing offcuts from a bathroom refit, this is a sensible week to bank some of it.

Here's the thinking. Copper on the London Metal Exchange isn't actually going vertical right now — global copper stockpiles are near six-year highs, and there's a genuine risk that if the war drags on and energy costs stay high, factory demand for new copper falls and prices soften. The LME has been drifting sideways. What's held UK yard prices up is the energy-and-feedstock story, not a copper shortage.

That means: you're being paid a war premium, not a supply premium. War premiums unwind faster than supply premiums when conditions change. If the ceasefire holds and ships start moving in the next fortnight, some of the gain comes back out.

Practical plan for the week:

• Take your clean, sorted bright copper to the yard now. It's where the best prices are and the spread over contaminated grades is at its widest in months. Five minutes with a Stanley knife separating clean from dirty can be worth £600 a tonne, and that gap is bigger in a spiky market.
• Hold braziery and dirty copper for another week or two. The grade differentials narrow when markets normalise, and the relative value of contaminated copper is better in a calmer market than a spiky one.
• Check today's copper prices before you load the van. Rates vary by yard and region more than usual right now.

If you're new to copper grades, our copper scrap guide for plumbers runs through the differences between bright wire, heavy copper, braziery and tanks in plain English.

Aluminium: sit on it a bit longer

Aluminium is the opposite story. The Middle East runs about 8–9% of global primary aluminium production, and the Iran war has hit it directly. Qatar's Qatalum smelter halted when its gas supply was cut. Bahrain's Alba declared force majeure on export shipments because it can't get material out through Hormuz. Aluminium prices jumped to a four-year high as a result.

That's not a war premium. That's a genuine supply shortage, and supply shortages take longer to unwind than political ceasefires. Smelters don't restart overnight — it can take weeks to get a line back to full production even after the ships start moving.

So for aluminium:

• If you've got extruded aluminium (window frames, conservatory profiles, shopfit scrap), sit on it for another week or two. The premium has further to run.
• Cast aluminium (old cookware, engine blocks, lawn furniture) has also moved up but less dramatically. No particular rush either way.
• Old sheet (drinks cans, flashing offcuts, cladding) is the lowest-paid grade and isn't worth storing long. Take it when you're already making a yard run.
• Check the aluminium prices page before you go.

The one thing to avoid

Don't take mixed, unsorted loads to the yard this week. When the market is moving fast, yards widen the discount they apply to contaminated or mixed grades to protect themselves against price risk. The spread between clean and dirty is wider right now than it is in calm markets, which means the reward for sorting is higher, and the penalty for not sorting is steeper.

Half an hour of sorting on the drive before you leave is worth more in April 2026 than it would have been in January. Separate:

• Bright wire from insulated cable
• Clean copper pipe from pipe with brass fittings still attached (the brass is worth more, but only if it's separated)
• Extruded aluminium from cast aluminium
• Ferrous (magnetic) from non-ferrous

The magnet test is the quickest tool you own. If it sticks, it's steel or iron. If it doesn't, it's probably worth more, so keep it aside.

What to watch

Two things to watch over the next fortnight that'll tell you whether this continues or fades:

1. Is the ceasefire holding? If Israeli and Iranian strikes resume, oil goes back to $120+, and scrap spikes again. Non-negotiable upside risk.
2. Are ships actually moving through Hormuz? This is the real signal. Political announcements don't move metal — ships do.

We're covering both every week in The Weekly Melt. It's free, it lands in your inbox on a Tuesday morning, and it'll save you a phone call to the yard most weeks to check whether prices have moved.

The bottom line

Bank your clean copper this week. Sit on your aluminium for another fortnight. Sort everything before you go. And don't believe the ceasefire headlines until you see tanker data, not press conferences.